Gold
On Wednesday, safe-haven buying pushed gold to a new high of $2,790 before stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data narrowed gains, closing at $2,786.24 per ounce.
Overnight, key U.S. data showed mixed economic signals: GDP growth was slightly below forecast, while consumer spending surged, and core PCE inflation rose 2.2%, still high but easing. October’s ADP jobs report revealed a strong 233,000 job increase, well above the forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded after dipping, closing at 4.306%, near recent highs, causing gold investors some concern. U.S. election uncertainties and geopolitical tensions also continued to support gold prices.
Today, the market will assess key economic indicators, including the US September core PCE price index, initial unemployment claims, and October Challenger layoffs. Investors should remain vigilant regarding developments in the Middle East and news related to the US elections.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold bulls are showcasing impressive performance, with daily gold prices reaching new heights and reestablishing above the 5-day and 10-day moving average indicators. Following a series of small bullish candles, the previous day saw a strong bullish candlestick close at a high, indicating the potential for further continuation. The daily trend remains strong, with the price action breaking above last week’s high, showing sustained momentum. In the short term, gold is expected to approach the key level of $2,800.
Today’s Focus:
Consider primarily buying on dips, with secondary focus on selling on rebounds.
- Resistance: $2,800 – $2,810
- Support: $2,770 – $2,765
Oil
On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded as U.S. EIA crude inventories unexpectedly dropped and OPEC+ considered delaying its planned production increase. WTI crude for December rose $1.40 (2.08%) to $68.61 per barrel, while December Brent gained $1.56 (2.19%), closing at $72.68 per barrel.
The EIA reported a 515,000-barrel decline in crude inventories, defying expectations of a 2.3 million-barrel increase. U.S. gasoline stocks fell to a two-year low, and crude imports from Saudi Arabia dropped to a January 2021 low of 13,000 barrels per day.
OPEC+ may delay its December production boost due to weak demand concerns, postponing a planned increase of 180,000 barrels per day. This follows prior production cuts totaling 5.86 million barrels per day, or 5.7% of global demand.
Geopolitical tensions eased with reports of a proposed U.S.-brokered 60-day ceasefire, under which Israel would withdraw from Lebanon within a week.
Investors should keep an eye on U.S. core PCE data, Middle East developments, and U.S. election news.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Oil opened yesterday at $68.34, dropped to $67.52, then rallied to an intraday high of $68.89 before pulling back. It ultimately closed at $67.85 in a doji pattern with a longer lower shadow. Currently, the MACD shows a bearish crossover, and the stochastic indicator (STO) suggests a weak short-term outlook, with price resistance around the 72.2 mark on the daily moving average (MA60).
Today’s Focus:
Consider buying on pullbacks and selling on rallies.
- Resistance: $69.8-$70.3
- Support: $68.0-$67.5
