Market Recap
Gold surged nearly $20 on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of $2,940.34 per ounce before settling at $2,933.29, driven by softer US CPI data and ongoing tariff uncertainties. Meanwhile, crude oil extended its rally, with WTI crude futures rising over 2% following reports of tighter-than-expected US oil and gas inventories.
Gold Overview
Gold prices climbed as slowing US inflation fueled rate-cut bets and trade war concerns bolstered safe-haven demand. Spot gold closed at $2,933.29 per ounce, up 0.59% after briefly touching $2,940.34.
US February CPI came in softer than expected, strengthening expectations for a Fed rate cut. Data showed:
- YoY CPI: 2.8% (vs. expected 2.9%, previous 3.0%)
- MoM CPI: 0.2% (lowest since October)
- Core CPI: 3.1% (lowest since April 2021)
Meanwhile, global trade tensions intensified after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, prompting swift retaliation from the EU and Canada. The EU plans to impose tariffs on €26 billion worth of US goods next month, fueling uncertainty and lifting gold prices.
Looking Ahead:
Markets are now watching the upcoming US PPI report and weekly jobless claims for further clues on inflation and labor market conditions. Any significant surprises could impact Fed policy expectations and influence gold’s trajectory.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Gold maintained strong momentum, breaking $2,930 resistance and closing near session highs. The daily candle formed a bullish breakout, reclaiming the 5-day moving average and reinforcing an uptrend.
- Key Resistance: $2,950–$2,955
- Key Support: $2,925–$2,920
Trading Strategy: Favoring buying dips on pullbacks while watching for potential resistance near $2,950.
Crude Oil Overview
Oil prices surged over 2% as US crude and gas inventories tightened more than expected, lifting sentiment despite ongoing demand concerns.
- WTI April crude: +$1.43 (+2.2%) to $67.68
- Brent May crude: +$1.39 (+2.0%) to $70.95
The latest EIA report showed a smaller-than-expected crude inventory build:
- US crude stockpiles: +1.45M barrels (vs. expected +2.00M)
- Gasoline inventories: -5.74M barrels (vs. expected -1.88M)
- Distillates inventories: Declined more than forecast
Analysts say the steeper draw in refined products signals stronger-than-expected demand, which could support further gains. Additionally, the lower-than-expected US inflation print helped ease concerns about economic slowdown, improving overall market sentiment.
OPEC’s monthly report reaffirmed steady global oil demand growth in 2025, citing increased air and road travel as key drivers. However, the group warned that trade policy changes could trigger price volatility.
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
Oil rebounded strongly, reclaiming the 5-day moving average but still facing resistance from the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. A decisive break above $68 could confirm a short-term bullish trend.
- Key Resistance: $68.5–$69.0
- Key Support: $66.5–$66.0
Trading Strategy: Favoring selling rallies near resistance unless a breakout above $68 occurs.
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