Gold Approaches Record High; Oil Gains on Supply Disruptions

Market Recap

Amid ongoing uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy, investor concerns about economic growth fueled safe-haven demand for gold. Prices continued their upward momentum, briefly approaching last week’s record high before closing at $2,935.53 per ounce.

Despite Russia-U.S.-Saudi talks capping gains, escalating supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S. helped crude oil settle higher.

Gold Market Overview

Persistent uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy has heightened economic concerns, driving safe-haven flows into gold. On Tuesday, prices extended their gains, nearing last week’s all-time high.

Spot gold rose 1.27%, closing at $2,935.53 per ounce.
Market Drivers:
- Trump confirmed plans for a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and promised further details on April 2.
- Kitco analyst Jim Wyckoff: “Rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are increasing safe-haven demand, while technical charts maintain a bullish bias.”
- Central bank demand remains strong, supporting gold prices.
- SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, saw holdings rise by 6.88 tons—its biggest daily increase since Jan. 17.

Key Events to Watch

FOMC January meeting minutes
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson’s speech
Geopolitical developments

Gold – Technical Outlook

Gold found support at $2,890, triggering a strong rally:

Asian & European sessions: Minor pullback to $2,892, then a rebound.
U.S. session: Prices surged past $2,920, breaking resistance at $2,936, closing near session highs.
Near-term trend: Bullish, but overbought conditions near record levels suggest potential resistance at $2,943–2,944.

Gold – Today’s Focus

Bullish bias: Buy on dips, cautious at resistance levels.
Key resistance: $2,945–$2,950
Key support: $2,920–$2,915

Crude Oil Market Overview

Oil prices ended higher despite Russia-U.S.-Saudi talks limiting gains, as supply disruptions worsened.

WTI crude rose 1.6% to $71.85 per barrel. (Note: No settlement on Monday due to the U.S. holiday.)
Brent crude gained $0.62 (+0.82%) to $75.84 per barrel.

Oil – Key Market Drivers

Russia-Ukraine tensions:
- Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russia’s Caspian Pipeline (CPC), reducing flows by 30-40% (≈380,000 barrels per day).
Weather-related supply issues:
- Russia’s Novorossiysk port suspended operations due to storms.
- U.S. cold wave disrupted North Dakota production, cutting output by 150,000 barrels per day.
Ongoing negotiations:
- U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia for over 4.5 hours to discuss oil market stability.
- Speculation suggests a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports if a deal is reached.

Oil – Technical Outlook

Oil saw two-sided trade with support at $70.9:

European session: Price tested resistance at $72, then retreated.
U.S. session: Brief drop to $70.9, followed by a bounce into the close.
Short-term outlook: Still range-bound, with resistance near $73.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Oil-0219.jpg — (Light Crude Oil Futures, 1-day chart)

Oil – Today’s Focus

Bearish bias: Look for shorting opportunities on rallies.
Key resistance: $72.8–$73.3
Key support: $70.5–$70.0

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