Market Recap
Despite concerns over US President Trump’s tariff plans, a strengthening US dollar pressured gold prices. After briefly reaching a record high of $2,946.94 per ounce, gold pulled back and closed down 0.09%. Meanwhile, crude oil extended its gains as supply disruptions in Russia and the US, coupled with OPEC+ considerations to delay its planned April production increase, pushed Brent crude higher for a third consecutive session.
Gold Overview
Gold prices surged to a new record high of $2,946.94 per ounce on Wednesday before retreating under pressure from a strengthening US dollar. At the close, spot gold fell 0.09% to $2,933.15 per ounce.
The US Dollar Index rose 0.13%, rebounding from a two-month low, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, noted:
“We are in an exceptionally uncertain period… Global tariffs and trade tensions remain key catalysts driving safe-haven demand.”
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes indicated that officials agreed interest rate cuts would require clear evidence of sustained inflation decline. The minutes also revealed concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s tariff policies.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed this sentiment, stating that the economy’s resilience allows policymakers to proceed cautiously before cutting rates. According to LSEG data, traders now expect at least one 25-basis-point rate cut this year, with a 44% probability of a second cut before year-end.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Gold experienced volatile price action, rallying to fresh highs before pulling back.
- Asian & European Sessions: Initial dip to $2,924 was met with buying interest, driving prices higher.
- U.S. Session: Price surged past $2,940, reaching a record $2,946, but later declined, closing near $2,933.
Gold – Daily Chart Outlook
Gold remains in a bullish consolidation phase above $2,920, but near-term resistance at $2,945-$2,950 could trigger profit-taking.
Gold – Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $2,950 – $2,955
- Support: $2,925 – $2,920
Crude Oil Highlights
Crude oil extended its gains for a third session, driven by supply disruptions and speculation that OPEC+ may delay its planned April production increase.
- WTI crude rose $0.40 (+0.55%) to $72.25 per barrel.
- Brent crude gained $0.20 (+0.26%) to $76.04 per barrel.
Oil – Key Market Drivers
Russia-US Supply Disruptions:
- A Ukrainian drone strike on a Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pumping station led to a 30%-40% reduction in oil flow, equating to a supply loss of 380,000 barrels per day.
- U.S. winter storms have also impacted oil output, with North Dakota’s daily production cut by 150,000 barrels.
OPEC+ Considering Output Delay:
- Reports suggest OPEC+ may push back its April production increase, citing market instability.
- Mizuho Bank strategist Vishnu Varathan commented:
“A delayed OPEC+ production boost would provide near-term support for oil prices, though long-term price stability will depend on non-OPEC supply growth.”
G7 Discussing Tighter Russian Oil Price Cap:
- The G7 is considering lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports to curb Moscow’s energy revenues, as the current $60-per-barrel cap has had limited impact.
Oil – Technical Outlook
- Oil prices remain in a consolidation phase, supported at $70 while facing resistance at $73-$74.
- Brent crude saw intraday volatility, briefly testing $72.90 before retreating.
Oil – Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $73.5 – $74.0
- Support: $71.0 – $70.5
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