1. Forex Market Insight
EUR/USD
The euro retreated from a more than one-week high after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the ECB may need to cut its growth forecast further as Russia’s war in Ukraine affects households and businesses.
Lagarde’s comments contrasted sharply with hawkish comments from other ECB officials, who appeared to suggest that ECB officials have ramped up bets that euro zone interest rates will soon be raised.
President of Deutsche Bundesbank, Nagel, said on Wednesday, 20th April 2022, that the ECB could end bond purchases at the end of June before raising interest rates early in the third quarter of this year to curb surging inflation in the euro zone.
Money markets eased bets on rate hikes after the European Central Bank meeting last Thursday, 14th April 2022, with markets now pricing in more than 20 basis points of rate hikes by July and more than 80 basis points by the end of the year.
That would bring the benchmark rate above zero for the first time since 2013. In late trade, the euro was down 0.2% at $1.0831 after touching $1.0936, its highest level since 11th April 2022.
Technical Analysis：
(EUR/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
We focus on the 1.0940-line today. If the euro runs steadily below the 1.0940-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the two positions of 1.0832 and 1.0776. If the strength of the euro breaks above the 1.0940-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.0986 and 1.1013.
GBP Intraday Trend Analysis
The U.S. dollar index was last up 0.33% at 100.63, having been in decline for most of the session after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a 50 basis point rate hike would be discussed at its May meeting and that a slightly faster pace of action by the FOMC would be appropriate.
Coupled with the strong U.S. economy and less impact from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Fed may still raise interest rates faster and more aggressively than the Bank of England, leading to continued weakness in the pound.
Technical Analysis：
(GBP/USD 1-hour chart)
Execution Insight:
The pound is mainly focused on the 1.2991-line today. If the pound runs above the 1.2991-line, it will pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of 1.3104 and 1.3186. If the pound runs below the 1.2991-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the 1.2872-line.
2. Precious Metals Market Insight
Gold
Fundamental Analysis:
Spot gold fell yesterday, 21st April 2022, falling by more than 1% at one point in the session, setting a new low of nearly two weeks to US$1,936.60 per ounce.
The rise in US bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar put pressure on gold prices, and the market expects the Fed to significantly tighten policy.
However, the bottoming out of gold prices in the evening also indicated the market’s concerns about the Ukraine-Russia dispute and continued high inflation.
Technical Analysis：
(Gold 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Gold pays attention to the 1940-line today. If the gold price runs steadily above the 1940-line, then it will pay attention to the support strength of the 1958 and 1974 positions. If the gold price breaks below the 1940-line, then pay attention to the suppression strength of the two positions of the 1929-line and 1919-line.
3. Commodities Market Insight
WTI Crude Oil
Fundamental Analysis:
Oil prices rose more than 1% yesterday, 21st April 2022, with U.S. oil closing above the 104 mark, helped by concerns that supplies would tighten and the European Union was considering a possible ban on oil imports from Russia, which would further restrict global oil trade.
Technical Analysis：
(Crude oil 1-hour chart)
Trading Strategies:
Oil prices focus on the 99.50-line today. If the oil price runs above the 99.50-line, then focus on the suppression strength of the 102.52 and 107.52 positions. If the oil price runs below the 99.50-line, then pay attention to the support strength of the 97.33 and 95.05 positions.
Disclaimer
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, DOO Prime does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this information. DOO Prime does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly, from the use of this document. The material contained in this document is provided solely for general information and educational purposes and is not and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, securities, futures, options, bonds or any other relevant financial instruments or investments. Nothing in this document should be taken as making any recommendations or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of financial instruments, any related products or any other products, securities or investments. Trading involves risk and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to the report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their own financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.
