Market Recap
Gold briefly surged to a new all-time high of $3,057.25 during Asian trading on Thursday before retreating slightly to close at $3,044.73 per ounce. The rally was driven by heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, after President Donald Trump publicly called on the central bank to act. Meanwhile, crude oil prices climbed nearly 2%, buoyed by OPEC+ compensation cuts and new US sanctions on Iran.
Gold Overview
Gold spiked to an intraday record of $3,057.25 per ounce in the Asian session after US President Trump openly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. By market close, spot gold edged down 0.09% to $3,044.73 per ounce.
According to Xinhua, Trump wrote on social media Wednesday night that the Fed “had better start cutting rates,” as tariffs are increasingly weighing on the US economy. Earlier that day, the Fed announced it would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Data from LSEG shows traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 69 basis points this year—essentially two 25bps cuts—with the first cut fully priced in for July.
Citigroup on Thursday raised its 3-month gold target from $3,000 to $3,200 per ounce, citing strong haven demand and ETF inflows. Analysts now expect gold to potentially reach $3,500 by year-end if economic uncertainty persists and investment demand remains strong.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Gold remained strong above the $3,022 level on Thursday, with a breakout to $3,057 during the European session before entering a consolidation phase. The price found support near $3,025 overnight and rebounded, closing with a doji candle. The bullish trend remains intact as long as gold holds above $3,020.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Buy on dips; short on bounces
- Resistance: $3,057–$3,062
- Support: $3,030–$3,025
Crude Oil Overview
Crude prices gained on Thursday after Russia and other producers pledged to compensate for prior overproduction starting in March, and the US announced new sanctions against Iran.
WTI April futures rose $1.10, or 1.64%, to settle at $68.26 per barrel. Brent May futures climbed $1.22, or 1.72%, to $72.00.
According to a statement on the official OPEC website, member nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait submitted plans to implement compensatory production cuts. New US sanctions on Iran also provided additional support for oil prices.
Geopolitical Tensions
Middle East tensions escalated again. Reuters reported that Israel launched fresh air and ground attacks in Gaza, breaking a temporary ceasefire. Earlier, a major airstrike by Israeli forces had resulted in over 400 deaths, as per Global Times.
Dollar Impact
A stronger US dollar, following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady amid tariff uncertainty, limited crude’s upside. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers.
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
Crude oil saw a pullback below $67.5 in the European session before rebounding strongly off the $66.6 level. A late-session surge took prices above the $68 mark, with WTI closing near its daily high. The bullish reversal signals renewed upward momentum.
Crude Oil – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Buy on pullbacks; sell on rallies
- Resistance: $69.5–$70.0
- Support: $67.3–$66.8
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