On Thursday, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies provided safe-haven support for gold, which climbed to a near four-week high, peaking at $2,678.17 per ounce and closing at $2,670.19 (+0.33%). Meanwhile, cold weather across parts of Europe and the US boosted winter fuel demand, and optimistic forecasts from Citi and JPMorgan supported crude oil, which closed nearly 1% higher.
Gold Market Overview
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s incoming policies continued to provide safe-haven demand for gold, lifting it to a near four-week high.
- Close: $2,670.19 (+0.33%)
- Intraday High: $2,678.17
Market Drivers
- Policy Uncertainty:
- CNN reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to justify broad tariffs on allies and rivals.
- CNN reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to justify broad tariffs on allies and rivals.
- Market Commentary:
- Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, stated, “Safe-haven demand is offering moderate support for gold, offsetting the headwinds from a stronger dollar and rising yields. The uncertainty around Trump’s policies may persist as he prepares to take office.”
- Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, stated, “Safe-haven demand is offering moderate support for gold, offsetting the headwinds from a stronger dollar and rising yields. The uncertainty around Trump’s policies may persist as he prepares to take office.”
- Dollar and Yields:
- The US Dollar Index rose to 109.17, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated, closing steady at 4.693%.
- Federal Reserve officials expressed caution about further rate cuts. Michelle Bowman supported recent cuts but saw no need for additional action, while Susan Collins projected fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated.
- Upcoming Data:
- Investors await the December US non-farm payrolls report for clarity on the Fed’s rate path. According to FactSet, the median forecast for December’s job additions is 153,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Technical Analysis of Gold
Gold demonstrated bullish momentum, breaking above $2,670 during the US session. After peaking at $2,678, prices faced resistance, retreating to $2,662 before closing higher
- Daily Chart: The daily candle closed as a strong bullish bar, confirming a rebound from the $2,655 support level.
Today’s Focus & Strategy
- Strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks, with selling at resistance as a secondary approach.
- Resistance: $2,685–$2,690
- Support: $2,660–$2,655
Crude Oil Market Overview
Crude oil prices rose nearly 1% on Thursday, supported by increased winter fuel demand in Europe and the US, alongside optimistic short-term price forecasts from major banks.
- WTI February Futures: +$0.60 (+0.82%) to $73.92 per barrel
- Brent March Futures: +$0.76 (+1.0%) to $76.92 per barrel
Market Drivers
- Winter Fuel Demand:
- A winter storm warning was issued for regions spanning eastern Texas to western Virginia, including Arkansas and Kentucky.
- Ultra-low sulfur diesel futures surged to their highest level since October 8, according to LSEG data.
- Market Forecasts:
- JPMorgan estimates that for every 1°F drop below the 10-year average, heating oil and propane demand increases by 113,000 barrels per day across the US, Europe, and Japan.
- Citi raised its Q1 Brent price forecast to $71 and WTI to $67, while maintaining a bearish outlook for 2025, predicting Brent could drop to $60 in Q2 due to seasonal inventory buildups exceeding norms.
- Geopolitical Factors:
- Reuters reported that the Biden administration plans to announce new sanctions against Russia’s economy, with a particular focus on the country’s oil industry.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
WTI crude rebounded strongly after holding the $73 support level, climbing above $74 during the US session and closing higher.
- Daily Chart: Oil prices confirmed a bounce off the 10-day moving average, signaling further potential upside.
Today’s Focus & Strategy
- Strategy: Favor buying on pullbacks, with selling at resistance as a secondary approach.
- Resistance: $75.2–$75.7
- Support: $73.3–$72.8
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Disclaimer
This information contained in this blog is for general reference only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. It does not consider any specific recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation. Past performance references are not reliable indicators of future performance. Doo Prime and its affiliates make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses or damages resulting from its use or from any investments made based on it.
The above strategies reflect only the analysts’ opinions and are for reference only. They should not be used or considered as the basis for any trading decisions or as an invitation to engage in any transaction. Doo Prime does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and assumes no responsibility for any losses resulting from the use of this report. Do not rely on this report to replace your independent judgment. The market is risky, and investments should be made with caution.
