Market Recap
Gold surged to $2,954.93, marking its 10th record high of the year, before retreating to close at $2,939, driven by Trump’s tariff announcement on lumber and rising safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, oil extended gains for the third consecutive session, supported by declining U.S. fuel inventories, Russian supply disruptions, and a weaker dollar.
Gold Overview
Gold soared to a new all-time high on Thursday, as investors sought safety amid rising trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that lumber tariffs could be implemented around April 2, fueling economic uncertainty.
- Trump’s Trade Policy: On February 19, Trump revealed plans to impose tariffs on cars, chips, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, with lumber tariffs set at 25%.
- Market Reaction: Investors flocked to gold as a hedge against inflation and trade instability. However, Treasury Secretary Besant ruled out re-evaluating gold reserves, leading to a pullback in gold’s rally.
- Dollar & Treasury Yields: A 0.78% drop in the U.S. dollar index (hitting a 2-month low at 106.35) and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields (down 3.32 basis points to 4.50%) also helped support gold prices.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Gold initially rallied past $2,950 but faced selling pressure at $2,954, leading to a pullback to $2,930 before stabilizing. The bullish trend remains intact, but a short-term pullback could be expected.
- Key Resistance: $2,955-$2,960
- Key Support: $2,923-$2,918
Oil Overview
Oil prices rose for the third straight day, bolstered by declining U.S. fuel inventories, supply disruptions in Russia, and a weaker dollar.
- EIA Report: U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.63M barrels, slightly above forecasts, but gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell, signaling tighter fuel supplies.
- Russia & Ukraine Conflict: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure intensified concerns about energy supplies.
- Potential Headwinds: Trump’s tariff policies could impact oil demand, as higher import costs may weaken global trade and economic growth.
Oil – Technical Outlook
Oil rebounded from $71.7, climbing past $72.5 and testing $73.1 before encountering resistance.
- Key Resistance: $73.8-$74.3
- Key Support: $71.7-$71.2
Despite recent gains, oil remains under pressure below the 10-day moving average at $73.5, indicating that short-term rebounds could be limited.
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