Market Overview
On Monday, US markets saw light trading due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. Gold rebounded above $2,900 per ounce, supported by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand fueled by Trump’s tariff policy, before settling at $2,898.60. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, driven by Russia’s discussions on banning gasoline exports and OPEC+ considering a delay in production increases, with Brent crude futures closing up more than 0.6%.
Gold Highlights
Gold advanced as investors sought safety amid trade uncertainty and a declining US dollar, with prices briefly surpassing $2,900 before consolidating.
Gold Key Drivers
- US Dollar Weakness & Safe-Haven Demand:
- The US Dollar Index fluctuated near a two-month low, contributing to gold’s strength.
- UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that intensifying trade tensions and economic uncertainty continue to support gold, predicting a potential rise to $3,000, driven by central bank purchases.
- Goldman Sachs Raises Price Forecast:
- Goldman Sachs revised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, citing:
- Strong central bank demand as a structural growth driver.
- Expected ETF inflows as interest rates decline.
- The bank reaffirmed its “Buy Gold” recommendation, emphasizing its value as a hedge despite potential short-term pullbacks.
- Goldman Sachs revised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, citing:
- Fed Policy Outlook – Waller Signals No Rush for Rate Cuts:
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in Sydney, indicated a preference to hold rates steady, stating that recent CPI data was “somewhat disappointing.”
- However, he highlighted that the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure appears more favorable.
Gold –Technical Analysis
- Gold found support at $2,877 and rebounded toward $2,900.
- Resistance remains at $2,910–$2,915, while key support lies at $2,880–$2,885.
- Trend remains within a consolidation zone, awaiting further directional catalysts.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Primary strategy: Buy on dips, sell on rebounds.
- Resistance Levels: $2,910–$2,915.
- Support Levels: $2,885–$2,880.
Oil Highlights
Oil prices rose on multiple supply-side factors, including Russia’s potential gasoline export ban, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical risks.
Oil Market Performance
- Brent Crude (April): +0.48 (+0.64%), closing at $75.22 per barrel.
- WTI Crude: Closed early due to the US holiday, but rose $0.65 before settlement.
Oil – Key Drivers
- Russia Considers Gasoline Export Ban:
- Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak will meet on February 20 to discuss a complete ban on gasoline exports from March 1.
- Russia extended existing export restrictions until February 28, signaling tighter domestic supply.
- OPEC+ Weighs Delaying Output Increases:
- OPEC+ is considering postponing its planned April production hike, despite pressure from President Trump to lower oil prices.
- Bloomberg reports that OPEC+ officials remain cautious about market volatility and demand outlook.
- Geopolitical Risks – Caspian Pipeline Attack:
- A drone attack hit a Russian oil pumping station in Krasnodar, affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
- This reduced Kazakh oil exports, impacting Chevron and ExxonMobil’s shipments to global markets.
Oil – Technical Analysis
- Oil held support at $70.00 and rebounded toward $71.20.
- Resistance remains at $72.5–$73.0, while support is seen at $70.3–$69.8.
- Short-term trend remains weak, with oil struggling to break above key moving averages.
Oil – Today’s Focus
- Primary strategy: Sell on rallies, buy near key support levels.
- Resistance Levels: $72.5–$73.0.
- Support Levels: $70.3–$69.8.
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Disclaimer
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