Market Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions and signs of a softer stance on tariffs from US President Trump reduced safe-haven demand. The dollar climbed to a two-week high, pressuring gold to a session low of $3,002.43 before closing down 0.4% at $3,011.86/oz. Meanwhile, crude oil rose over 1% after Trump imposed new sanctions on countries importing Venezuelan oil, though gains were capped by expectations of an OPEC+ supply increase in May.
Gold Overview
On Monday, gold fell as easing geopolitical tensions and signs of a more flexible tariff policy from President Trump lifted market sentiment and the dollar. Spot gold dropped as low as $3,002.43 before settling at $3,011.86 per ounce, down 0.4%.
According to Xinhua, President Trump stated at the White House that as the April 2 “reciprocal tariff” policy approaches, the US may offer tariff relief to several countries—but only under the principle of reciprocity. He added that new tariffs targeting cars, lumber, and semiconductors could be announced in the coming days.
The softened tone on tariffs helped boost risk appetite, pushing both the dollar and equities higher, while prompting some profit-taking in gold. The US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 104.31, hitting its highest level in over two weeks.
On the geopolitical front, Xinhua reported that Russian and US delegations concluded talks late Monday in Riyadh. A joint statement is expected, with Black Sea shipping safety listed as a key agenda item.
Gold – Technical Analysis
Gold encountered resistance around $3,033 during the Asia–Europe session and fell steadily through the US session, briefly dipping below $3,020 and testing $3,002. The daily candlestick printed a bearish bar, marking three consecutive down sessions. Short-term momentum has shifted to a corrective pattern.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Primary Bias: Sell on rebounds
- Alternative Bias: Buy on dips
Gold – Key Levels
- Resistance: $3,033–$3,038
- Support: $3,000–$2,995
Crude Oil Overview
Oil prices climbed Monday after the US announced new sanctions targeting countries that import Venezuelan crude. Gains were tempered by concerns that OPEC+ may proceed with its scheduled May supply hike. WTI May futures rose $0.83, or 1.21%, to $69.11/bbl, while Brent gained $0.84, or 1.16%, to settle at $73.00/bbl.
According to Xinhua, President Trump announced via social media that the US will impose a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, citing Venezuela’s “hostile” stance toward the US. The new tariffs are set to take effect April 2.
However, Reuters reported that four OPEC+ sources said the alliance is likely to increase output for a second straight month in May, which, along with expectations of more Russian supply, limited the rally.
Negotiations over the Russia–Ukraine conflict are also ongoing. BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler noted that while reduced Venezuelan exports support oil prices, rising Russian exports remain a key bearish factor.
Crude Oil – Technical Analysis
Crude prices extended their rebound, with a choppy session giving way to gains. After an early dip to $68 during the Europe session, oil rebounded and surged past the $69 mark during US trading, closing near session highs. The daily chart printed a bullish candle, confirming strength above the 5- and 10-day moving averages. Short-term momentum remains upward.
Crude Oil – Today’s Focus
- Primary Bias: Buy on dips
- Alternative Bias: Sell on rallies
Crude Oil – Key Levels
- Resistance: $70.20–$70.70
- Support: $68.30–$67.80
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