Market Recap
On Wednesday, gold faced pressure as the US dollar and Treasury yields climbed. However, concerns over the Trump administration’s tariff policies provided support, leading to a narrow trading range. Gold ended the day slightly down by 0.02%, closing at $3,019.08 per ounce.
Meanwhile, crude oil futures maintained an upward trend throughout the day. After the release of US EIA crude inventory data, WTI crude surged to a daily high, briefly rising nearly 2% before closing with a 1% gain.
Gold Overview
The strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields pressured gold on Wednesday, but concerns over Trump’s tariff policies continued to provide support. As a result, gold remained within a narrow range. By the close, spot gold dipped 0.02% to $3,019.08 per ounce.
In early US trading, sources revealed that Trump was set to announce auto tariffs as soon as Wednesday. The White House press secretary later confirmed the news. Following this, Xinhua News Agency reported that on March 26, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on US auto imports, set to take effect on April 2.
After the White House confirmed the upcoming auto tariffs, the US dollar index accelerated its rise, hitting a three-week high. Treasury yields also climbed, increasing downward pressure on gold. However, analysts noted that Trump’s tariff measures could heighten global trade tensions, boosting market risk aversion and attracting safe-haven demand for gold. This could provide short-term price support.
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target on Wednesday, forecasting that by the end of 2025, gold could reach $3,300 per ounce—up from its previous estimate of $3,100. The bank also adjusted its projected trading range to $3,250–$3,520 per ounce. In an extreme scenario, gold could surpass $4,200 per ounce by the end of 2025.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Gold remained in a narrow trading range yesterday. During Asian and European trading hours, it fluctuated around the $3,015 level before accelerating higher in the afternoon. However, after breaking above $3,035, it faced resistance and pulled back into a consolidation phase. It ultimately closed near $3,020, forming a doji candlestick on the daily chart, indicating a pattern of time-based consolidation.
Gold Today’s Key Levels
- Strategy: Focus on short positions on rebounds, with buy opportunities on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $3,030–$3,035
- Support: $3,010–$3,005
Crude Oil Overview
On Wednesday, crude oil futures sustained their upward momentum. After the US EIA crude inventory data was released, oil prices hit a daily high. WTI crude briefly surged nearly 2%, while Brent crude gained 1.6%. By the close, WTI May crude futures rose 0.94% to $69.65 per barrel, while Brent May crude gained 1.05%, closing at $73.79 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that refinery activity increased last week, leading to a decline in US crude inventories. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell.
Data showed that for the week ending March 21, crude inventories decreased by 3.341 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels—far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 956,000-barrel drop.
The price increase reflects shifting market sentiment. At the beginning of the month, the market was bearish. However, as President Trump intensified pressure on Iran’s oil exports, traders began aggressively buying oil call options.
Data from Bridgeton Research Group indicated that Wednesday’s price rally prompted commodity trading advisors to turn net long on Brent crude. The firm also noted that WTI short positions had shrunk to 54%, down from 82% on March 17.
However, an agreement between the US, Ukraine, and Russia to pause maritime attacks and strikes on energy facilities limited oil price gains. Again Capital analyst Kilduff noted that this development offset some of the upward pressure on prices from the Venezuela crisis. Additionally, he expects an increase in Russian oil supply to the market in the near future.
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
Oil prices continued their steady upward trend yesterday. After a brief pullback to the $69 level in Asian and European trading, WTI rebounded and surged during US trading, briefly breaking above $70 before pulling back into consolidation. It ultimately closed above $69.50, forming a bullish candlestick on the daily chart. The overall trend suggests a continued rebound with higher highs.
Crude Oil – Today’s Key Levels
- Strategy: Focus on buying on pullbacks, with short positions on rebounds.
- Resistance: $70.5–$71.0
- Support: $68.5–$68.0
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