Market Recap
On Tuesday, US consumer confidence data fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar and US bond yields. The subsequent rise in risk-off demand, driven by tariff concerns, helped gold to bounce back, ending its three-day losing streak with a modest gain of 0.29%. Gold briefly dipped to $3,002.43 per ounce but recovered to close at $3,011.86 per ounce.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose due to new sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports but were capped by OPEC+’s potential May production increase plans. WTI crude oil futures closed with a slight gain of over 1%.
Gold Overview
Gold saw a modest rebound on Tuesday, driven by weak US consumer confidence data and a dip in the dollar and bond yields. The safe-haven demand spurred by concerns over tariffs contributed to gold’s recovery, ending its three-day losing streak. It briefly touched $3,002.43 per ounce but ended the day at $3,011.86 per ounce.
The March US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell for the fourth consecutive month, and the Philadelphia Fed Services Business Outlook also hit its lowest level since the pandemic began. These reports fueled concerns, driving the 10-year US Treasury yield lower, while the US Dollar Index reversed its previous gains and ended a four-day streak of growth.
On the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler hinted at economic challenges, mentioning that inflation progress toward the 2% target is slow due to recent commodity price increases. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested a minimal rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of the year.
Further tariff concerns surrounding President Trump’s upcoming April 2 tariff policy also supported gold. Markets expect Trump’s new tariffs to raise inflation and hurt economic growth, which could drive more demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold – Technical Analysis
Gold found support at $3,010 and rebounded higher. It broke through the $3,035 resistance level before pulling back to consolidate, closing near the daily high. The price continues to trade in a wide range, supported by bullish sentiment.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Consider buying on pullbacks and selling on rebounds.
- Resistance levels: $3,035-$3,040.
- Support levels: $3,010-$3,005.
Oil Overview
Oil prices rose on Tuesday due to sanctions imposed by President Trump on countries importing Venezuelan oil, although the rally was limited by concerns over a potential increase in OPEC+ production in May. WTI crude oil futures gained $0.83, or about 1.21%, to close at $69.11 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.84, or 1.16%, to $73.00 per barrel.
Reports indicated that the US and Russia have agreed on the Black Sea shipping safety initiative and a halt to attacks on energy facilities, which led to concerns about an increase in Russian oil supplies. This agreement offset some of the geopolitical risks that had previously supported oil prices.
Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said: “If peace is reached between Russia and Ukraine, it could open the door for reducing sanctions on Russian oil,” which caused concerns over a potential increase in oil supplies. At the same time, the weak US economic data added to concerns about oil demand.
Oil – Technical Analysis
Oil prices rose initially but faced resistance at the $69 level. The market briefly broke through $69.60 before retreating and stabilizing at $68.50 during the early morning session, closing with a neutral candlestick pattern. The price remains in a slight bullish trend, with the next key level of support at $67.
Oil – Today’s Focus
- Strategy: Focus on buying on dips and selling on rallies.
- Resistance levels: $70.30-$70.80.
- Support levels: $68.20-$67.70.
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