The latest released data shows that the core CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the United States for January recorded a rate of 0.4%, nearly extinguishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in May.  

The US dollar index hit a three-month high, while gold fell by more than 1%, breaching the USD 2000 mark. Due to continued geopolitical tensions and optimistic views from OPEC supporting oil prices, but with the Fed waiting longer to cut rates, the increase in oil prices is limited. 

Gold >>  

On Tuesday, the latest released data showed that the core CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the United States for January recorded a rate of 0.4%, nearly extinguishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in May.  

The US dollar index hit a three-month high, and spot gold plummeted by nearly USD 40 before the US session, marking the first breach of the USD 2000 mark in two months and briefly hitting an intraday low of USD 1990.17, ultimately closing down by 1.33% at USD 1993.20 per ounce.  

COMEX April gold futures settlement price fell by 1.27%, closing at USD 2007.20 per ounce. Recent job market data has consistently shown strong performance, and inflation this week has also been pressured by persistently high housing prices, putting pressure on consumers.  

January CPI exceeded expectations and showed signs of rebound, further strengthening the market’s view that Fed officials are not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain rates unchanged in March, which has suppressed bullish sentiment for gold prices.  

Fed officials this week also continued to hint at the lack of urgency in adjusting interest rates, leading the market to remain short-term bearish on gold prices. 

From a technical perspective, gold prices rose initially during the Asian and European sessions, stabilizing around the 2017 level, then accelerated higher in the afternoon, breaking through the opening gap at 2027 from previous days and entering into a sideways consolidation.  

In the late US session, influenced by the negative impact of CPI data, gold prices quickly rebounded and broke through the 2031 level, experiencing a unilateral decline.  

The US session saw a very weak unilateral decline, breaking through the key psychological level of 2000 points and continuing to decline towards the vicinity of 1990 for a very weak closing. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 1997-2005. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 1970-1972.  

WTI Crude Oil >>  

On Tuesday, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as optimistic views from OPEC supporting oil prices, but with the Fed waiting longer to cut rates, the increase in oil prices was limited.  

WTI March crude oil futures closed up USD 0.95 per barrel, a gain of over 1.23%, at USD 77.87 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price rose USD 0.77 per barrel, a gain of 0.94%, closing at USD 82.77 per barrel. 

Sources said the US rejected Russia’s proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine; in addition, negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire involving the US, Egypt, Israel, and Qatar failed to make progress, pushing oil prices higher due to geopolitical tensions.  

OPEC’s monthly report stated that global crude oil demand will remain strong in 2024. OPEC also raised its forecasts for economic growth in 2024 and 2025, citing further upside potential. 

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand will peak in 2030, weakening the rationale for investment.  

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly drilling productivity report that oil production in US shale regions in March will increase to the highest level in four months. 

In terms of technical analysis, oil prices continued to see bullish volatility in a choppy trading environment, closing higher after breaking through resistance levels.  

During the Asian and European sessions, prices retraced slightly, stabilizing around the USD 76.8 level before rebounding. In the afternoon, prices further rose, breaking through the USD 77.8 level before entering into a sideways consolidation.  

During the late US session, prices retraced once again but stabilized around the USD 76.9 level before experiencing another bullish uptrend and closing higher. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.0-79.5. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 76.5-76.0. 

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